Overnight data from China helped ease worries about global growth and support a market rebound, but uncertainty about commodity markets and oil in particular remain. This week oil prices fell to a 12-year low around the $30-per-barrel mark. The common inverse relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar keeps the greenback supported ahead of today’s Fed speeches and Friday’s retail sales data. In contrast, the Canadian dollar continues to trade near the 1.42-1.44 price range versus its US counterpart amid the oil rout. 

The Pound has fallen to another new multi-year low ahead of an interest rate decision by the Bank of England this Thursday at 12:00. A combination of worsening of financial market conditions in China, the subsequent fall in commodity markets, and domestic data indicating a slower UK economy means that any hawkish rhetoric from the MPC is probably unlikely. Overnight the GBP/USD rate hit its lowest in nearly 6 years ($1.4350).

Friday’s Swiss unemployment and inflation data came in on the wrong side of expectations, with unemployment rising from 3.4% to 3.7% in December. Separately, data from the SNB showed the bank suffered a record loss of CHF23bln in 2015 after abandoning its EUR/CHF 1.20 cap and ramping up on intervention. Last week’s data does not bode well for the CHF.