Analyse du marché des changes

août 15, 2019 | Analyse du marché des devises

Thèmes globaux

The U.S. dollar firmed against the yen but softened against its other main peers, including the euro, sterling and Canada, as overnight data tempered fears of a global slowdown. The Aussie dollar rose after Australia’s July jobs report showed stronger than expected hiring. In the U.K., retail sales unexpectedly rose, boosting the pound. Norway’s currency sank to multiyear lows after the nation’s central bank left borrowing rates unchanged at 1.25%, and downplayed prospects of a rate hike later this year. Markets remain in a funk and prone to slides on growing concerns about a global slowdown. America’s bond market is flashing signs that the global malaise may be headed for U.S. shores. American yields un-inverted early Thursday but remained too close for comfort. U.S. retail sales today will play an important role in gauging recession risk. 


USDCAD stuck near the upper end of the range, not far from mid-June peaks touched a week ago. While U.S. stocks showed tentative signs of a bounce at the start of trading today, oil markets remained in the red with crude below $55. Markets’ loss of confidence in the outlook for global growth bodes bearishly for the Canadian dollar given its economy’s dependence on exports as a chief growth engine.   


The euro was little changed after falling this week on news that Germany had one foot in recession. Still, moves to the downside in the single currency have been relatively muted as market turmoil has led many to unwind euro-funded carry trades in higher yielding currencies like emerging markets. Euro sentiment remains fragile after German growth contracted during the second quarter. Until Germany’s economy shows meaningful signs of stabilizing, downside pressures are likely to build on the euro.


The dollar perked up after U.S. data showed no sign of an impending recession. Consumers spent for a fifth month in a row, with retail sales up by a stronger than expected 0.7% in July. Moreover, regional surveys of business activity also topped expectations. The notion that the U.S. remains home to the most meaningful global growth should continue to support the greenback.


Norway’s krone slid to decade-plus lows after the nation’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 1.25%, and walked back prior guidance of higher interest rates later this year. As an oil-sensitive currency, losses for the krone, or crown, have been compounded by crude’s slide. Norway crown is hovering around 17-year lows against the greenback.


Better than expected U.K. data and a move by Britain’s opposition party to try to thwart a no-deal Brexit offered the pound a solid boost. Retail sales unexpectedly rose, up 0.2% in July. Brexit uncertainty is expected to keep the pound under general pressure, at least over the short run. The pound benefited from reports that the Labour Party plans a no confidence vote in the government to try to dodge an economy-throttling no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31.

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