Analyse du marché des changes

août 14, 2019 | Analyse du marché des devises

Thèmes globaux

Havens storm back as global clouds darken

Safe havens strengthened after downbeat data from Europe offered more evidence of a slowing global economy. The yen stormed back along with the Swiss franc, classic safe harbors during periods of global distress. The greenback was mixed, though higher versus Canada and commodity currencies from Down Under and emerging markets. Germany’s economy went backwards during the spring when it contracted 0.1%. Meanwhile, in an ominous sign from America’s bond market, the two-year yield topped the 10-year for the first time since 2007. The so-called yield inversion signaled that the U.S. economy could be a little more than a year away from recession. Sinking yields are the bond market’s way of pressuring the Fed to step on the monetary gas pedal and cut interest rates. Others worry that central bankers may be low on tools to ward off recession given that policy settings are already accommodative.


Yen snaps back after selloff
The yen stormed back after taking on the chin Tuesday a move by Washington to delay increasing tariffs on some Chinese goods. The yen thrived anew after downbeat German data added to global growth concerns and America’s bond market signaled a potential recession just over the horizon. Meanwhile, signs of continued growth in Japan also buoyed the yen as machinery orders soared by nearly 14% in June, defying forecasts of a decline for the notoriously volatile survey.


Euro subdued after Germany contracts
The euro wavered in and out of the red after data showed Germany’s economy shifted into reverse last quarter. Europe’s biggest economy contracted 0.1% during the second quarter as a host of global risks, including a moderating world economy, dampened demand for exports, a key pillar of growth. While a backward-looking indicator, the road ahead remains fraught with weakness in data this week showing the dimmest German investor confidence in more than seven years. The euro largely took the data in stride given the already low bar for the ECB to act.


Inverted yields a mixed sign for U.S. dollar
The dollar skid anew against the yen as America’s bond market signaled a rising risk of recession. With the two-year yield topping the 10-year for the first time since 2007, it’s a classic sign that recession could be a little more than a year away. What the dollar and world economy could use is some good news on the U.S. economy that helps allay growth concerns. Attention will be on U.S. retail sales Thursday. If consumers extend their modest winning streak, it would help to tamp down pressure on the Fed to cut rates, a scenario that could prove dollar supportive.


Global risks stalk loonie, oil
More cautionary signs from the world economy weighed on currencies with close ties to global growth such as Canada’s dollar and the Aussie and kiwi. Oil staged another big move, this time to the downside with prices shedding more than 3% to $55. Global risks are a wild card for the Bank of Canada and could potentially sway central bankers to lower interest rates if the outlook continues to darken.


U.K. pound rangebound
Sterling hovered near but about multiyear lows after U.K. inflation ticked higher. Consumer inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.1% in July, a whisker above the Bank of England’s 2% bullseye. The pound saw little support from the data as underlying inflation kept below 2%, with Brexit uncertainty likely to keep prospects of an inflation-fighting rate hike at bay for some time yet.

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