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Analyse du marché des changes

août 13, 2019 | Analyse du marché des devises

Thèmes globaux

The U.S. dollar was underpinned by mounting global risks. The greenback fared its best against commodity and emerging market currencies. The buck was little changed against the euro and sterling, while it struggled against safer peers from Japan and Switzerland. The global wall of worry is gaining stature as political turmoil in Hong Kong and Argentina adds to risks related to the U.S.-China trade war, slowing global growth and Brexit. The yen hovered near 2019 highs with the Australian and New Zealand dollars close to multiyear lows. Political instability in Argentina sent the nation’s peso into a steep nosedive of around 30% to all-time lows. Argentina’s woes stoked fears of contagion to other EM currencies, knocking South Africa’s rand to nearly one-year lows and pushing the Mexican peso towards 2019 lows. The euro steadied, albeit with a woozy bias, after German investor confidence deteriorated to a 2011 low.

EUR

A sharper than expected plunge in German investor confidence weighed on the euro. Germany’s influential ZEW survey sank to minus 44.1 in August, the lowest since late 2011, from minus 24.5 in July. The data highlighted threats to growth in Europe’s biggest economy from global trade uncertainty and Brexit. The euro’s data-induced decline has been limited on account of lackluster summer trade and how expectations are already high for ECB action as soon as next month.

ZAR

South Africa’s rand slumped to 11-month lows while the Mexican peso edged closer to 2019 lows. Emerging market currencies are on the FX hot seat as global risks rise and investors duck for safety in traditional havens like the U.S., Japanese and Swiss currencies. Political instability in Argentina this week where the nation’s pro-business president fared poorly in primary elections stoked a deeper selloff in emerging markets.

JPY

Safer bets like the yen and Swiss franc remained the most popular plays thanks to the global wall of worry gaining stature. Market appetite for safety continued to depress U.S. Treasury yields with the 10-year below 1.65%, not far from lows for the year. Lower yields are a classic harbinger of a growing likelihood of recession, another factor burnishing the appeal of defensive plays like the yen and Swissie. Continued yen strength would raise the risk of Tokyo jawboning its currency lower given the headwind it represents on the world’s No. 3 economy.

CAD

Canada’s dollar underperformed as global markets kept in the red. The price of one of Canada’s key resource exports, oil, was down nearly a percent to $54. USDCAD is gaining ground as political instability in Hong Kong and Argentina gives players yet another reason to favor safer bets. An absence of major Canadian data this week leaves the loonie prone to taking its cues from broader market drivers.  


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