Analyse du marché des changes

août 12, 2019 | Analyse du marché des devises

Thèmes globaux

Global markets continued to sing the trade war blues, resulting in a mixed but mostly steady U.S. dollar. The dollar made gains against the euro, commodity currencies, like Canada’s, and emerging markets. But the yen continued to outperform as recent trade war rhetoric suggested no short-term solution in sight. Moreover, it’s uncertain whether the U.S. and China will go ahead with planned trade talks next month in Washington. The dollar remains relatively strong and not far from multiyear highs. But the dollar isn’t without its vulnerabilities, especially with the U.S. president’s recent attempts to try to jawbone it lower. Focus of the coming week will be top-tier data from the U.S. and China on consumer spending, and second quarter growth from Europe.


The stronger yen was at or near 2019 highs against its U.S. counterpart on prospects of a long drawn-out U.S.-China trade war. The longer the trade war drags on, the more likely it would weigh the global outlook and crimp the world economy, a negative for market morale. The another driver of yen strength has been the Japanese economy’s better than expected performance last quarter when it grew at a solid annualized rate of 1.8% which stands in contrast to contraction in Britain during the same period. If not for an early year flash crash that momentarily sent the yen skyrocketing, USDJPY would be around 1 ½ year lows.


Canada’s dollar enjoyed a modest gain Monday, boosted by oil’s rebound from January lows, and the upside of mixed local jobs data last week. Oil topped $54 early Monday, above seven-month lows it last week below $51. While data Friday showed Canada shed jobs for a second straight month in July, paychecks thickened by the most in a decade, suggesting an elevated bar for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates.


The U.K. pound bounced above 2 ½ year lows, buoyed by technical support and the euro’s politically-induced decline. The pound’s ability so far to hold above a key psychological floor has slowed its decline. Key for sterling this week will be U.K. data on unemployment and inflation that will shed light on how close Britain may be to tipping into recession. Evidence of economic weakness, coupled with high Brexit uncertainty could prove catalysts to send sterling falling through the floor.


The euro slipped Monday, stalked by rising political risk in Italy, home to the bloc’s third-biggest economy. Political differences in Rome have markets on edge over whether leaders will aim to bridge them by holding early elections. The euro is also on slippery ground ahead of Wednesday data that could show German growth contracted during the second quarter. Subzero growth in europe’s biggest economy would cement expectations of stronger ECB stimulus as soon as next month.

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