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Analyse du marché des changes

août 16, 2019 | Analyse du marché des devises

Thèmes globaux

America’s dollar was poised for a mostly productive week, bolstered by bullish U.S. data and expectations of bazooka-caliber stimulus from Europe. The buck rose against the euro and yen, notching two-week peaks against the former. The dollar’s rise was uneven, though, as sterling strengthened along with commodity- and emerging-market currencies. Global markets started Friday in a better mood with sentiment boosted by expectations for the European Central Bank to err on the side of bold stimulus as soon as central bankers’ coming meeting on Sept. 12. Meanwhile, any downturn in the U.S. economy appeared on a further rather than closer horizon after bullish retail spending data this week suggested America’s main growth engine had ample horsepower to extend the record-long expansion. Firmer oil not far below $55 lifted Canada’s loonie above one-week lows. The buoyant greenback could be at risk of a presidential swipe to try to slow its rise.

CAD

An uptick in oil boosted the commodity-influenced Canadian dollar. Oil’s momentary flirt with $55 had helped to ease pressure on the loonie. The outlook for Canada’s dollar dimmed this week as global turmoil and fears of downturn in the world economy revived expectations for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates from 1.75%. Key to Canada’s interest rate debate will be data next week on inflation, due Wednesday, and Friday on retail spending. Any whiff of weakness would risk robbing the Canadian currency of more of its year-to-date gains.

EUR

Reports that the ECB might break out the big monetary guns as soon as next month weighed on the euro, sending it to two-week lows. Calls for bold action by European policymakers grew louder this week after the German economy, the bloc’s biggest and the world’s fourth largest, contracted during the spring with the summer quarter also looking anemic. The ECB at its coming meeting on Sept. 12 could decide to push interest rates further below zero and restart its bond buying program in a bid to jumpstart borrowing and spending with the aim of staving off a sharper slowdown.

GBP

Sterling defied dollar strength as it, too, staged a solid rally. The pound found a supporting cast from better than expected U.K. data this week that quelled fears of an impending downturn in the British economy. The pound also benefited from the euro’s decline which came amid expectations of potentially bold stimulus from the ECB in the short run. It also helped the U.K. unit that Brexit talk this week mostly centered around steps the opposition Labour Party could take to thwart an exit without a transition deal to cushion the economy.


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