The Future of World Trade

Deglobalization or Regionalization?

Trade in goods and services accounts for nearly 60 percent of the world's economic output, and the global average tariff has been cut in half since the 1990s to less than seven percent. A closer look, however, reveals that the hyperglobalisation of the last 70 years is in jeopardy.

Stagnant growth rates in much of the developed world, rising debt ratios, and existing income inequalities are reinforcing the urge to shift policy-making inward. At the same time, the steady eastward shift of the global economic centre is leading to a rise in the political importance of major emerging economies and to conflicts of interest between the developed world and the rising stars.

In our latest report we review the expected shift in global economic power, the complex nature of globalisation and the regionalisation of world trade.

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