Jun 26, 2020 | Risk Management

Brexit guide for businesses - June 2020

Uncovering the latest developments ahead of the June 30 deadline

Written by George Vessey, UK Currency Strategist 

New Brexit developments in June bring additional uncertainty for UK and EU firms, adding to the on-going COVID-19 complexities. This heightens the need to be highly responsive to market developments, and remain vigilant and agile to potential currency volatility.

The prospect of a no-trade deal Brexit is resurfacing as talks between the UK and EU have stalled in recent weeks. The UK is due to exit its post-Brexit transition period at the end of 2020 and the UK government insists it will not seek a negotiating extension this month.

The June 30 deadline to agree any extension to the year-end deadline is fast approaching, yet currencies are still - and understandably so - being driven mainly by COVID-19 related shifts in sentiment.

However, in a pandemic-induced global recession of unknown duration, a no-trade deal Brexit could exacerbate the economic shock and weigh heavily on the British pound. Meanwhile, positive negotiations or an agreement could boost sentiment. Therefore uncovering this issue and judging future scenarios still matters.

To support, in our latest Brexit guide we review how Brexit tends to impact currency, why a trade deal is important, and what economic scenarios and impacts we expect to help empower your FX decision-making.


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