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Currency Market Analysis

Jun 14, 2019 | Currency Market Analysis

Global Themes

Australian job numbers soft

Australian employment figures were released yesterday. Despite an increase in jobs added due to the increased number of people entering the job market, the unemployment figure came in at 5.2% when there was an unexpected figure of 5.1%. Also, the jobs added were mostly part time jobs contributing to the view that this was a soft number. This feeds into the RBA view that they will need to continue to cut rates, with the next expected cut in August. This sentiment pushed the AUD lower on the expectations of further interest rate cuts.


Off the coast of Oman there was a suspected torpedo attack on an oil tanker. The US has attributed this to Iran much in the same vein as the attack on 4 tankers in the previous month. This pushed oil prices up nearly 4.5% and prompted further safe haven buying, with the Japanese Yen gaining 0.3% against the Australian dollar.

US job numbers overnight came in worse than expected with unemployment claims up on the previous month and above estimates. However, the main headline is still whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates soon, in their next meeting on the 19th of June the chance of a cut is seen at about 30% up from 13% a month ago.

Coming up...

Tonight, we have retail sales in the US, this will give the markets a good look at whether the tariffs are starting to slow sales and whether those knock-on effects have impacted consumption.

There is a number of Chinese data releases at midday (AEST) including unemployment, retail sales and industrial production, this will give us a glimpse of the effect the trade war is having on their side. As Australia’s largest trading partner any poor results is likely to have an impact on the Australian Dollar..

By James Kniveton


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